Why Iran's hardliners will win if Netanyahu gets his way

Front pages of Iranian newspapers displaying headlines in response to Netanyahu's speech [AFP]

About the Author

Massoumeh Torfeh

Dr Massoumeh Torfeh is a Research Associate at LSE, specialising in Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

@massoumehtorfeh

So, despite all advice, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went ahead with his controversial speech at the US Congress arguing why the US should not sign what he regards as "a very bad deal" with Iran.  In a speech lasting over 40 minutes and including over 50 punchlines, he tried to persuade the US Congress to block the deal or at the very least push for "a much better one".

Otherwise, Israel would be "much safer without a deal", he said, forgetting that the break-up of the nuclear talks would strengthen hardliners in Iran thereby increasing the danger to Israel. The failure of the talks would also immediately lead to the hardline majority in the Iranian parliament pushing for higher grade uranium enrichment.

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Netanyahu's play on words about what makes a good deal or a bad deal, or who is and who isn't an enemy sounded more like a word game, trying to rhyme sentences, exaggerating threats and manipulating fears, illustrating that little serious thinking had gone into finding a real solution. He seemed to know little about the content of the agreement and his suggestions were too often totally one-sided, ironically resembling official speeches in Iran.

Anything new?

The hardliners in Iran, who have been clenching their fists already over the past few months, are pushing for a bill to increase Iran's enrichment capacity to 60 percent. They would most likely have the bill approved if the P5+1 agreement fails. Then Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is likely to withdraw his unprecedented support from the talks and from President Hassan Rouhani's reform policies.

Instead, he would rely increasingly on the Revolutionary Guards, who boast of new strategic weapons and drones built in Iran, claiming there is no need for any other force "in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf". 

But has Netanyahu said anything new? Not really. Just like Iranian hardliners, Netanyahu's often dogmatic words, reflecting a hawkish response, have been heard several times over. Granted, Iran has been using unacceptable language threatening Israel with words of "destruction" and "annihilation", but this has been going on for over 36 years, and if Israel hasn't found a way of stopping it by now, Netanyahu is unlikely to do so when Iran is at the height of its international relations with the West.

Granted also that Iran has been creating far more influence in the region by its presence in countries in the vicinity of Israel, such as Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Yet Iran is not alone in meddling in other countries. Israel and most Arab states are also heavily involved in funding their own militia groups and creating instability in the Middle East and Africa, each playing their own games with their own sets of friends and foe.

Just like Iranian hardliners, Netanyahu's often dogmatic words, reflecting a hawkish response, have been heard several times over.

Serious allegations

Israel has been in a full scale war with Palestinians in Gaza and Netanyahu's premiership has been tainted with serious allegations of lapses in international humanitarian law and the killing of hundreds of civilians in Gaza. Rouhani claimed Tel Aviv was not competent to speak about peace.

"The claims against Iran are raised by a regime which invades its neighbouring countries time and again in a year and slaughters innocent people, and a regime that shoots down children in Gaza," Rouhani said.

We can see the speech has already hyped the rhetoric in Iran when it would have made more sense for Netanyahu to reduce the tension, perhaps by trying to suggest smarter regional policy lines.

He cannot, for example, be serious in demanding a full freeze on Iran's nuclear activity when he is sitting on a reportedly huge nuclear arsenal without even declaring it to the world or attempting to become a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

"If these negotiations are meant to deprive the Iranian nation of its inalienable right of progress in science and technology, Iran will naturally not accept such an understanding and agreement," Rouhani said.

Referring to Netanyahu's speech, the hardline speaker of Iran's parliament, Ali Larijani, warned that the Islamic Republic's armed forces would "give an annihilating response to any type of aggression". The Commander of Iran's Basij Force, General Mohammad Reza Naqdi said: "The enemies should know that the Iranian nation will not accept any imposed deal which questions its honour and dignity and doesn't remove all sanctions."

Threat to Iran

Israel is seen as being just as much of a threat to Iran, especially with the kind of heated rhetoric that has been associated with Netanyahu. Iran believes that Israel has tried to thwart its nuclear programme, attempted drone strikes against its nuclear installations, and accuses Israel of being behind the assassinations of its nuclear scientists. Israel has rejected all the allegations.

Like Israel, Iran is also surrounded by mayhem. Several neighbouring countries are housing US troops, and some, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, are riddled with terrorism, factionalism and war, mostly as a direct consequence of failed international policies.

Netanyahu is making a mistake in attempting the break-up of what could be regarded as a historical nuclear agreement with Iran. At the very least he would be judged as a leader who, in pursuit of his own agenda, destroyed the chance of an agreement to keep Iran's nuclear activity under the watchful eye of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Netanyahu's aim was to impress the US Congress and the Israeli voters just two weeks prior to Israel's elections. He may well have achieved both. It is doubtful, however, whether he has created more peace and security for Israelis or managed to persuade the P5+1 and Iran from moving towards a viable agreement.

Dr Massoumeh Torfeh is the former director of strategic communication at the UN Assistance Mission for Afghanistan and is currently a research associate at the London School of Economics and Political Science, specialising in Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

US Diplomat slashed on face and wrist at arts centre in central Seoul by assailant shouting anti-war slogans.

Lippert was attending a breakfast meeting at the Sejong Art Centre when he was stabbed [Reuters]

The US ambassador to South Korea has been attacked by a knife-wielding man shouting anti-war slogans during a public event at an arts centre in Seoul.
The ambassador, Mark Lippert, was assaulted during a breakfast conference on Thursday as he was preparing to give a lecture about prospects for peace on the divided Korean Peninsula.
The US embassy said Lippert was in stable condition after surgery at a Seoul hospital. Hours after the attack Lippert tweeted that he was "doing well and in great spirits".
The suspect, identified by police as Kim Ki-jong, 55, was immediately apprehended at the scene. Police said he slashed Lippert on the face and wrist with a knife. Kim had a previous conviction for hurling a stone at the then Japanese ambassador to Seoul in 2010, police said.
"We have detained him and are investigating the cause of the attack and other circumstances," said district police chief Yoon Myung-soon.
Sources told Al Jazeera that Kim is the head of a relatively small civic organisation that has been calling for peace and reconciliation with North Korea.
According to witnesses, he repeatedly shouted "No drills for war." He was apparently referring to the ongoing large-scale South Korea-US military exercise, which occurs every year around this time.
Anti-US protesters in Seoul have recently demonstrated against the drills that North Korea says are preparation for an invasion. Seoul and Washington say the exercises, which will run until the end of April, are defensive and routine.
On Monday, the first day of this year's drills, North Korea test-fired short range missiles in reaction to the exercises.
'Attack on alliance'
Korean President Park Geun-hye condemned the attack, saying it was an attempt to strike at the military alliance between Seoul and Washington.
"The incident is intolerable because it is not only a physical attack on Ambassador Lippert, but also on the South Korea-US alliance," she said in a statement.
Lippert, 42, became ambassador in October 2014 and has been a regular presence on social media and in speeches and presentations during his time in Seoul.
He is a former Pentagon official who served as a foreign policy adviser to Barack Obama when he was a senator from Illinois.
A US official said Obama called Lippert after the attack.
"The president called US ambassador to the Republic of Korea, Mark Lippert, to tell him that he and his wife Robyn are in his thoughts and prayers, and to wish him the very best for a speedy recovery," National Security Council spokesperson Bernadette Meehan said in a statement.

North Korea and Japan to resume talks

Ryu Song-il, of North Korea's foreign ministry, arrives in China for the first talks with Japan since November 2012 [EPA]

Japan and North Korea will resume government-to-government negotiations for the first time since November 2012. The Japanese Foreign Ministry said on Friday that the two countries have agreed to meet in Beijing on March 30 and 31. The agreement was reached at informal talks this week between Japanese and North Korean foreign ministry officials in Shenyang, China. The officials were attending a meeting of the two countries' Red Cross societies. Japan and North Korea do not have diplomatic relations. They held talks in 2012 during a brief warming of relations, but those ended after North Korea launched a rocket in December of that year. A major issue for Japan is the fate of at least a dozen Japanese who it says were abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s.

Racist slurs scrawled in Arab Jerusalem area

In a January 'price tag' attack on a West Bank mosque, the Hebrew graffiti read 'Blood for blood, Qusra' [AP]

Israeli police have said that vandals have slashed car tyres and sprayed a bus with hate graffiti in a predominantly Arab neighbourhood in Jerusalem, the latest in a series of similar incidents.
Police spokeswoman Luba Samri said 34 cars were found damaged early on Monday in Beit Hanina in East Jerusalem.
She said one bus had "non-Jews in Israel = enemies" scrawled on it in Hebrew.
Samri said police were investigating the incident and searching for suspects.
Local residents told AFP news agency that security cameras at the site showed a group of men committed the crime, which bore the hallmarks of a "price tag" attack, a euphemism for hate crimes that generally target Palestinians.
Initially carried out against Palestinians in retaliation to state moves to dismantle unauthorised settler outposts, the attacks have since become a much broader phenomenon, with racist and xenophobic overtones.
Mosques, churches, dovish Israeli groups and even Israeli military bases have been targeted in the assaults, which have been widely condemned by Israeli leaders across the political spectrum.
In June, 21 cars were vandalised in a similar attack in Beit Hanina not far from Monday's attack. Last month, the tyres of 31 cars were slashed in a Palestinian neighbourhood in the southern sector of East Jerusalem.

Assad cousin killed in Syria's Latakia

Hilal founded the National Defence Army, a pro-government group fighting alongside the Syrian army [SOHR]

Hilal al-Assad, a cousin of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has been killed along with seven of his fighters during fighting in the border town of Kasab in Latakia province, after shells from rebels targeted his vehicle.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an activist group, reported Assad's death. It was confirmed by Syrian state television, which described Hilal as the head of the National Defence Force in the province of Latakia.
Hilal founded the National Defence Army, a group of pro-government civilians fighting alongside the Syrian army.
The Syrian rebel group Jaish al-Islam claimed responsibility for the killing in a statement published on its website.
"The first rocket was fired around 7:15pm, followed by another five minutes later. The rockets targeted a house where Hilal was holding a meeting with other members of the National Defence Army” the statement said.
On Sunday, activists and state media reported clashes near the town of Kasab and said both sides were dispatching reinforcements. Syrian officials said the opposition fighters were coming from inside Turkey.
The battle for Kasab broke out on Friday and at least 80 fighters on both sides have been killed.
Latakia province, which includes Assad's family village, is considered a government stronghold and many of its residents are from his Alawite minority.

Abe visits Anne Frank House before US, Korea meeting

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Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visit to the Anne Frank House was aimed to highlight Japan's friendship with the Jewish people. Photo: Reuters

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has paid a visit to the Anne Frank House museum in Amsterdam, a diplomatic move ahead of a meeting with the leaders of the US and South Korea to discuss North Korea.
Abe also expressed regrets yesterday that 300 copies of Anne Frank's diary were vandalised recently in Tokyo libraries.
"We would like to face historical facts in a humble manner and we would like also to pass on the lessons and facts of history to the next generation," Abe said.
"By doing so I wish to encourage peace in the entire international community."
One of Anne Frank's book that was vanadalised in Japan.
In the run-up to the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, Abe has sought to undo fallout from his December visit to Yasukuni Shrine, which honours all Japanese military casualties - including war criminals. The move angered China and South Korea and revived concerns about Abe's nationalist and revisionist tendencies.
Earlier this month Abe said he would not undo Japan's past apologies for its actions in the second world war.
Anne Frank, a German Jew born in Frankfurt in 1929, documented her family's experiences hiding in concealed rooms during the German occupation of the Netherlands where they settled in 1933. They were caught and sent to Nazi concentration camps where Anne and her sister died of typhus in 1945.
Anne's Diary of a Young Girl was added to the UN Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation's Memory of the World Register in 2009.
Abe's visit to the museum was not directly linked to the recent vandalism in Japan, "but the prime minister is likely to express our feeling against it if he has a chance", an official in Japan had said last week.
Last week, Tokyo police arrested the 36-year-old man without supplying a motive for the crime or identifying the suspect, whom they said has admitted to the vandalism. Japanese authorities often refrain from naming a suspect when there are questions over the individual's mental competence.
Abe is the most prominent world leader to visit the Anne Frank house since Israeli President Shimon Peres, former German President Christian Wulff and former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
"Abe seems more sensitive to Western criticisms of his revisionism than those coming from China or Korea, and in particular of the Jewish American community as represented by the Simon Wiesenthal Centre," Sophia University professor Koichi Nakano said.

Key aides from Putin's inner circle targeted in new round of EU sanctions

Editor's note: Nina dos Santos is CNN news anchor and correspondent based in London. Follow Nina on Twitter for the latest updates on business.

(CNN) -- European Union leaders agreed to earmark 12 more individuals for visa restrictions and asset freezes in the second stage of their four-step plan to prompt Russia to renege on its annexation of Crimea.

The list, which brings the total number of those targeted to 33, puts the Union on a position closer to the United States. The U.S. also added to its tally of targets on Thursday, tightening the noose around President Vladimir Putin's inner circle.

Nina Dos Santos

Two EU officials confirmed exclusively to CNN that the Speaker of Russia's Upper House, Valentina Matryienko, was among those set to be slapped with sanctions, as was the Deputy Prime Minister Dmirty Rogozin.

Other names among the new additions included two key aides to Putin, Sergey Glazyev and Vladislav Surkov, as well as Dmitry Kisilev, a TV anchor known for his provocative views.

EU members agreed unanimously on the candidacy of some the figures put forward after several hours around the negotiating table at a working dinner which ended after midnight on Thursday.

But some of bloc's 28 states expressed reservations on the names put forward for fear of Russian retaliation, the aides said.

Rogozin, in particular, the official said, was almost blocked by Cyprus and Slovakia, with the latter securing the right to allow him access to its country for meetings of an energy cooperation forum he chairs, one of the officials said.

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Malta also expressed concern about an unnamed candidate for sanctions, but withdrew its objection.

CNN also understands that family members - considered key to the efficacy of any measures- were not explicitly mentioned amid questions about the legality of such a move and the viability of placing travel bans on individuals, who in some occasions are already resident inside the EU.

And for those expecting swathes of Russian industry to feel the brunt of Europe's indignation, there may be disappointment. Despite the US's move to penalise Bank Rossiya, chief executives of the country's largest companies, like Gazprom, Rosneft and VTB Bank, will not feature on the EU's additional file.

What's more: Mr Putin's Chief of Staff Sergey Ivanov and his Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu -- already frozen out by America -- were left off Europe's list for fear of sending a bellicose signal to Russia.

With many, disparate nations to consider, including some post-Soviet states, the EU has the tough job of balancing competing interests whilst ensuring no one single state will suffer disproportionately from the fallout its sanctions will bring.

This week's steps form part of a four stage process, which will also see Europe punish Russia's financial sector, its energy industry, trade, and its arms business, should the country not respond, people familiar with the discussions confirmed.